How many years will global warming take? Fight against global warming now. Is there scientific evidence that global warming is caused by human activity?

06/22/2017 article

What is climate change on our planet?

To put it simply, it is an imbalance of all natural systems, which leads to changes in the precipitation pattern and an increase in the number of extreme events, such as hurricanes, floods, droughts; these are abrupt changes in the weather that are caused by fluctuations in solar radiation (solar radiation) and, more recently, by human activities.

Climate and weather

Weather is the state of the lower layers of the atmosphere at a given time in a given place. Climate is the average state of the weather and is predictable. Climate includes things like average temperature, rainfall, number of sunny days, and other variables that can be measured.

Climate change - fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values over a period of time from decades to millions of years. Moreover, changes in both the average values of weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The study of climate change is the science of paleoclimatology.

Dynamic processes in electric car planets are the source of energy for typhoons, cyclones, anticyclones and other global phenomena Bushuev, Kopylov Space and Earth. Electromechanical Interactions»

Climate change is caused by dynamic processes (disturbances in balance, balance of natural phenomena) on the Earth, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, one might add, human activities.

glaciation

Glaciations are recognized by scientists as one of the most marker indicators of climate change: they greatly increase in size during climate cooling (the so-called “little ice ages”) and decrease during climate warming. Glaciers grow and melt due to natural changes and under the influence of external influences. The most significant climatic processes over the past few million years are the change of glacial and interglacial epochs of the current ice age, due to changes in the orbit and axis of the Earth. Changes in the state of continental ice and fluctuations in sea level within 130 meters are in most regions the key consequences of climate change.

World Ocean

The ocean has the ability to accumulate (accumulate for the purpose of its subsequent use) thermal energy and move that energy to different parts of the ocean. Large-scale oceanic circulation created by a density difference (a scalar physical quantity defined as the ratio of a body's mass to the volume occupied by that body) of water resulting from the inhomogeneity of the distribution of temperature and salinity in the ocean, that is, it is caused by density gradients as a result of the action of currents fresh water and warmth. These two factors (temperature and salinity) together determine the density sea water. Windy surface currents (such as the Gulf Stream) move water from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean towards the north.

Transit Time - 1600 Years Primeau, 2005

These waters cool down on the way and, as a result, due to the increase in the resulting density, sink to the bottom. Dense waters at depths move in the direction opposite to the direction of wind currents. Most of the dense waters rise back to the surface in the area of the Southern Ocean, and the “oldest” of them (according to a transit time of 1600 years (Primeau, 2005) rise in the North Pacific Ocean, this is also due to sea currents - constant or periodic flows in the thickness of the world's oceans and seas.There are constant, periodic and irregular currents, surface and underwater, warm and cold currents.

The most significant for our planet are the North and South Equatorial currents, the course of the West Winds and density (determined by differences in the density of water, an example of which can be the Gulf Stream and the North Pacific Current) currents.

Thus, there is constant mixing between ocean basins within the "oceanic" dimension of time, which reduces the difference between them and unites the oceans into a global system. During movement, water masses constantly move both energy (in the form of heat) and matter (particles, solutes and gases), so large-scale ocean circulation significantly affects the climate of our planet, this circulation is often called the ocean conveyor. It plays a key role in the redistribution of heat and can significantly influence the climate.

Volcanic eruptions, continental drift, glaciation and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth's climate Ecocosm

In the aspect of observation, the present state of the climate is not only a consequence of the influence of certain factors, but also the entire history of its state. For example, during ten years of drought, lakes partially dry up, plants die, and the area of deserts increases. These conditions in turn cause less abundant rainfall in the years following the drought. Thus, climate change is a self-regulating process, since the environment reacts in a certain way to external influences, and, changing, is itself able to influence the climate.

Volcanic eruptions, continental drift, glaciation and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth's climate. On a millennium scale, the climate-determining process will be the slow movement from one ice age to the next.

Climate change is caused by changes in the earth's atmosphere, by processes occurring in other parts of the earth such as oceans, glaciers, and in our time by the effects of human activities.

To complete the coverage of the issue, it should be noted that the processes that form the climate, collect it - these are external processes - these are changes in solar radiation and the earth's orbit.

Causes of climate change:

Change in size, relief, relative position of continents and oceans.
Change in luminosity (the amount of energy released per unit time) of the Sun.
Changes in the parameters of the Earth's orbit and axis.
Changes in the transparency and composition of the atmosphere, including changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4).
Change in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface.
Change in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean.
Tectonics (the structure of the earth's crust in connection with the geological changes occurring in it) of lithospheric plates.
Cyclic nature of solar activity.
Changes in the direction and angle of the Earth's axis, the degree of deviation from the circumference of its orbit.

The result of the second reason in this list is the periodic increase and decrease in the area of the Sahara desert.

Volcanism.
Human activities that change the environment and affect the climate.

The main problems of the latter factor are: the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere growing due to fuel combustion, aerosols that affect its cooling, industrial animal husbandry and the cement industry.

Other factors such as animal husbandry, land use, depletion of the ozone layer and deforestation are also believed to influence the climate. This influence is expressed by a single value - radiative heating of the atmosphere.

Global warming

Changes in the current climate (in the direction of warming) are called global warming. It can be said that global warming is one of the local puzzles, and negatively colored, of the global phenomenon of “modern global climate change”. Global warming is one of an instance-rich set of "global climate change" faces, which is an increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth's climate system. It causes a whole series of troubles for humanity: this is the melting of glaciers, and the rise in the level of the World Ocean, and in general temperature anomalies.

Global warming is one of the local puzzles, and negatively colored, of the global phenomenon of "modern global climate change" Ecocosm

Since the 1970s, at least 90% of the warming energy has been stored in the ocean. Despite the dominant role of the ocean in heat storage, the term "global warming" is often used to refer to an increase in the average air temperature near the surface of the land and ocean. A person can influence global warming by not allowing the average temperature to exceed 2 degrees Celsius, which is determined to be critical for environment suitable for humans. When the temperature rises to given value The Earth's biosphere is threatened with irreversible consequences, which, according to the international scientific community, can be stopped by reducing harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

By 2100, according to scientists, some countries will turn into uninhabitable territories, these are countries such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other countries in the Middle East.

Climate change and Russia

For Russia, the annual damage from the impact of hydrometeorological phenomena is 30-60 million rubles. The average air temperature at the Earth's surface has increased since the pre-industrial era (from about 1750) by 0.7 ° C. There are not spontaneous climate changes - this is an alternation of cool-humid and warm-dry periods in the range of 35 - 45 years (put forward by scientists E. A. Brickner) and spontaneous climate change caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases due to economic activity, that is, the heating effect of carbon dioxide. Moreover, many scientists have come to the consensus that greenhouse gases have played a significant role in most climate changes, and human carbon dioxide emissions have already triggered significant global warming.

The scientific understanding of the causes of global warming is becoming more and more definite over time. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007) stated that there is a 90% chance that most of the temperature change is due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases due to human activities. In 2010, this conclusion was confirmed by the academies of sciences of the main industrial countries. It should be added that the results of rising global temperatures are sea level rise, changes in the amount and nature of precipitation, and an increase in deserts.

Arctic

It is no secret that warming is most pronounced in the Arctic, it leads to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. The temperature of the permafrost layer in the Arctic for 50 years has risen from -10 to -5 degrees.

Depending on the time of year, the area of the Arctic ice cover also changes. Its maximum value falls on the end of February - beginning of April, and the minimum - in September. During these periods, “benchmarks” are recorded.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began satellite surveillance of the Arctic in 1979. Before 2006, the ice cover was decreasing by an average of 3.7% per decade. But in September 2008, there was a record jump: the area decreased by 57,000 square meters. kilometers in one year, which in a ten-year perspective gave a 7.5% decrease.

As a result, in every part of the Arctic and in every season, the extent of ice is now significantly lower than it was in the 1980s and 1990s.

Other consequences

Other impacts of warming include: increased frequency of extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts and rainstorms; ocean acidification; extinction of species due to change temperature regime. Impacts of importance to humanity include the threat to food security due to negative impacts on crop yields (especially in Asia and Africa) and the loss of human habitats due to rising sea levels. The increased amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will acidify the ocean.

Opposition policy

The policy of combating global warming includes the idea of mitigating it by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as adapting to its impact. In the future, geological engineering will become possible. It is believed that in order to prevent irreversible climate change, the annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions until 2100 should be at least 6.3%.

This means that, on the one hand, it is necessary to introduce energy-saving technologies, and, on the other hand, to switch to alternative energy sources appropriate to the geographical location. Several sources of energy are safe for the atmosphere in terms of emissions: hydropower, nuclear power plants and new renewable sources - the sun, wind, tides, low tides.

On December 12, 2015, at the UN World Climate Conference in Paris, 195 delegations from around the world approved a global agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2020.

Global warming effects map

By 0.86 degrees In the 21st century, according to forecasts, the temperature increase can reach 6.5 degrees - this is a pessimistic scenario. According to the optimistic one, it will be 1-3 degrees. At first glance, an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere does not greatly affect human life and is not very noticeable for him, and this is true. Living in middle lane, it's hard to feel. However, the closer to the poles, the more obvious the impact and harm of global warming.

At the moment, the average temperature on Earth is about 15 degrees. During the ice age, it was about 11 degrees. According to scientists, globally, humanity will feel the problem of warming when the average temperature of the atmosphere exceeds 17 degrees Celsius.

Causes of global warming

All over the world, experts identify many reasons due to which global warming occurs. In essence, they can be generalized to anthropogenic, that is, caused by man, and natural.

the greenhouse effect

The main reason that leads to an increase in the average temperature of the planet can be called industrialization. The growth in the intensity of production, the number of factories, cars, the population of the planet affects the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. These are methane, water vapor, nitric oxide, carbon dioxide and others. As a result of their accumulation, the density of the lower layers of the atmosphere increases. Greenhouse gases pass through themselves solar energy, which heats the Earth, but the heat that the Earth itself gives off, these gases trap, not releasing into space. This process is called the greenhouse effect. It was first discovered and described in the first half of the 19th century.

The greenhouse effect is considered the main cause of global warming, since greenhouse gases in one form or another are emitted by almost any industry. Most of the emissions are carbon dioxide, it is released as a result of the combustion of petroleum products, coal, natural gas. Vehicles emit exhaust fumes. A large amount of emissions enter the atmosphere after conventional waste incineration.

Another factor increasing the greenhouse effect is deforestation and forest fires. All this reduces the number of plants that emit oxygen, which reduces the density of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases are emitted not only by industrial enterprises, but also by agricultural ones. For example, cattle farms. Ordinary barns are suppliers of another greenhouse gas - methane. This is due to the fact that ruminants consume a huge amount of plants per day and produce gases when they digest it. This is called "ruminant flatulence". Methane in the share of greenhouse gases is less than 25%, however, than carbon dioxide.

Another anthropogenic factor in the increase in the average temperature of the Earth is a large number of small particles of dust and soot. They, being in the atmosphere, absorb solar energy, heating the air and interfering with the warming of the surface of the planet. In the event of a fall, they transfer the accumulated temperature to the ground. For example, Negative influence this effect has on the snows of Antarctica. Warm particles of dust and soot, when they fall, heat the snow and lead to melting.

natural causes

Some scientists suggest that global warming is also influenced by factors to which humans have nothing to do. So, together with the greenhouse effect, solar activity is called the cause. However, this theory has been subject to much criticism. In particular, a number of experts argue that solar activity over the past 2000 years has been stable and therefore the reason for the change in the average temperature lies in something else. In addition, even if solar activity really warmed the Earth's atmosphere, then this would affect all layers, and not just the lower one.

Another natural cause is called volcanic activity. As a result of eruptions, lava flows are released, which, in contact with water, contribute to the release a large number water vapor. In addition, volcanic ash enters the atmosphere, particles of which can absorb solar energy and trap it in the air.

Consequences of global warming

The harm of the consequences of global warming can be tracked now. Over the past hundred years, the level of the world's oceans has risen by 20 centimeters due to the melting of the Arctic ice. Over the past 50 years, their number has decreased by 13%. Over the past year, there were several large icebergs from the main ice mass. Also, due to global warming, heat waves in summer now cover 100 times more area than 40 years ago. In the 80s, extremely hot summers were on 0.1% of the Earth's surface - now it is already 10%.

The dangers of global warming

If no measures are taken to combat global warming, the consequences will become much more noticeable in the foreseeable future. According to environmentalists, if the average temperature of the Earth continues to rise and exceeds 17-18 degrees Celsius, this will lead to the melting of glaciers (according to some reports, this is in the year 2100), as a result, the sea level will rise, which will entail floods and other climate disasters. So, according to some forecasts, almost half of the entire land will fall into the flood zone. Changes in water levels and ocean acidity will change the flora and reduce the number of animal species.

The most significant danger of global warming is the lack of fresh water and the associated change in the way of life of people, savings, all kinds of crises, and a change in the structure of consumption.

Another consequence of this warming could be a serious crisis in agriculture. Due to climate change within the continents, it will no longer be possible to conduct the usual types of agro-industry in a particular territory. Adapting the industry to new conditions will require a long time and a huge amount of resources. According to experts, due to global warming in Africa, food problems may begin as early as 2030.

Warming Island

A good example of warming is the island of the same name in Greenland. Until 2005, it was considered a peninsula, but it turned out that it was connected to the mainland by ice. Having parted, it turned out that instead of connecting there was a strait. The island was renamed "Warming Island".

Fight against global warming

The main direction in the fight against global warming is an attempt to limit the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. So the largest environmental organizations, such as Greenpeace or WWF, advocate the rejection of investments in fossil fuels. Also, various kinds of actions are held in almost every country, but given the scale of the problem, the main mechanisms to combat it are international in nature.

Thus, within the framework of the UN Framework Convention in 1997, the Kyoto Agreement was concluded to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It was signed by 192 countries of the world. Some have made commitments to reduce emissions by a specific percentage. For example, by 8% in the EU countries. Russia and Ukraine have pledged to keep emissions in the 2000s at the level of the 1990s.

In 2015, France signed the Paris Agreement, which replaced the Kyoto “Paris Agreement”, and 96 countries ratified it. The agreement also obliges countries to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the growth rate of the planet's average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era. The agreement commits countries to move towards a carbon-free green economy by 2020, reduce emissions and allocate money to the climate fund. Russia signed the agreement, but did not ratify it. The US got out of it.

On global warming and related serious economic, social and environmental problems . Behind last years There is a great deal of news and information published on this subject. But latest news, perhaps, turned out to be "cooler" of all. A group of scientists from the US, France and the UK said that we have already passed the point of no return and the catastrophic consequences of global warming on Earth can no longer be stopped.

Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean (definition from Wikipedia). There are several reasons for global warming and they are associated with cyclic fluctuations in solar activity (solar cycles) and human economic activity. It is impossible to determine today with absolute certainty which of them is dominant. Most scientists are inclined to the point of view that the main reason for this is human activity (burning hydrocarbon fuels). Some scientists categorically disagree and believe that the total human influence is small, and the main reason is the high solar activity. Moreover, they even argue that a new Little Ice Age will begin shortly after the current warming.

Personally, in this situation it is difficult for me to accept any one point of view, since none of them today has sufficiently complete scientific evidence. And yet, the problem is serious, it is necessary to respond to it somehow and you can’t stand aside. In my opinion, even if the supporters of the anthropogenic (human) factor, as main reason global warming will turn out to be wrong in the future, then the forces and means spent today to prevent this warming will not be in vain. They will more than pay off with new technologies and attentive attitude on the part of people to nature protection.

What is the essence of global warming? The bottom line is the so-called "greenhouse" effect. In the Earth's atmosphere, there is a certain balance of heat (solar rays) from the Sun and its return to space. The composition of the atmosphere has a great influence on this balance. More precisely, the amount of so-called greenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide and methane, although water vapor also has a greenhouse value). These gases have the ability to trap the sun's rays (heat) in the atmosphere, preventing them from escaping back into outer space. Previously, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 0.02%. However, as industry grew and the extraction and burning of coal, oil and natural gas increased, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere constantly increased. Because of this, more heat is absorbed, which gradually warms up the atmosphere of the planet. Forest and steppe fires also contribute to this. This is about human activity. I will leave the mechanism of cosmic influence for the next material.

What are the consequences of global warming? Like any phenomenon, global warming has both negative and positive consequences. It is believed that it will become warmer in the northern countries, so it will be easier in winter, agricultural yields will increase, southern crops (plants) will be cultivated to the north. However, scientists are sure that the negative consequences of global warming will be much greater and the losses from them will significantly exceed the benefits. That is, in general, humanity will suffer from global warming.

What kind of troubles can be expected from global warming?

An increase in the number and strength of destructive typhoons and hurricanes;
Increase in the number and duration of droughts, exacerbation of the problem of water scarcity;
From the melting of the glaciers of the Arctic and Antarctic, the rise in the level of the World Ocean and the flooding of coastal areas where many people live;
The death of taiga forests due to the thawing of permafrost and the destruction of cities built on this permafrost;
Distribution to the north and to the highlands of a number of species - pests of agriculture and forestry and disease vectors.
Changes in the Arctic and Antarctic can lead to a change in the circulation of ocean currents, and hence the entire hydro- and atmosphere of the Earth.

This is in in general terms. In any case, global warming is a problem that will affect all people, regardless of where they live and what they do. That is why it is today the most widely discussed in the world, not only among scientists, but also among the public.

There are many discussions and different points of view on this matter. Personally, I was most impressed by Al Gore's (former US presidential candidate in the campaign in which he ran with George W. Bush) "An Inconvenient Truth". It clearly and reasonably reveals the causes of global warming and shows its Negative consequences for people. The main conclusion that is made in the film is that the momentary political interests of the narrow ruling groups of people must give way to the long-term interests of the entire human civilization.

In any case, a lot of things need to be done in order to, if not stop, then at least mitigate the negative effects of global warming. And the publication below - once again think about it.

(Continuation )

Georgy Kazulko
Belovezhskaya Pushcha

(Your feedback, thoughts, ideas, questions, comments or disagreements, write in the comments below (anonymous users sometimes need to send a comment in a separate window enter code english text from the picture) or send to my email address: [email protected])

Catastrophic climate change is unstoppable

The best scientists in the world believe that in the near future humanity will face the expansion of deserts, declining crops, the growth of the strength of hurricanes, and the disappearance of mountain glaciers that provide water to hundreds of millions of people.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has already reached the point after which catastrophic climate change will begin, even if the amount of carbon dioxide can be reduced in the coming decades.

This is stated by a group of well-known scientists from the US, France and the UK in an article published in the Open Atmospheric Science Journal.

This study contradicts previous estimates, according to which a dangerous concentration of carbon dioxide will be reached this century, only later, RIA Novosti reports.

"There is a bright side to this conclusion - if we take steps to reduce carbon dioxide concentrations, we can reduce the number of problems that already seem inevitable," said James Hansen, lead author of the study, James Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Research, part of Columbia University.

According to the scientist, humanity will face the expansion of deserts, declining crops, the growth of the strength of hurricanes, the reduction of coral reefs and the disappearance of mountain glaciers, which provide water to hundreds of millions of people.

To prevent a sharp warming in the coming years, the researchers write, the concentration of carbon dioxide should be reduced to the level that existed before the industrial age - to 350 parts per million (0.035%). The current concentration of carbon dioxide is 385 parts per million and is increasing by 2 parts per million (0.0002%) per year, mainly due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation.

The authors of the article note that the latest data on the history of climate change on Earth support their conclusions. In particular, observations of the melting of glaciers that previously reflected solar radiation and the release of carbon dioxide from melting permafrost and the ocean show that these processes, which were previously thought to be rather slow, can occur over decades, not thousands. years.

Scientists note that reducing emissions from coal combustion can significantly improve the situation.

At the same time, they are skeptical about geoengineering methods for extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, in particular, proposals to bury carbon dioxide in tectonic cracks or pump it into rocks on the ocean floor. In their opinion, the withdrawal of 50 millionths of gas using this technology will cost at least 20 trillion dollars, which is twice the US national debt.

“Humanity today faces the inconvenient fact that industrial civilization is becoming the main factor influencing the climate. The biggest danger in this situation is ignorance and denial, which can make tragic consequences inevitable,” the researchers wrote.

This is an increase in the average temperature on Earth due to greenhouse gas emissions: methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor. Some scientists believe that this is the fault of the industry: factories and cars generate emissions. They absorb part of the infrared radiation coming from the Earth. Due to the retained energy, the atmosphere layer and the surface of the planet are heated.

Global warming will lead to the melting of glaciers, and they, in turn, will raise the level of the oceans. Photo: depositphotos

However, there is another theory: global warming is a natural process. After all, nature itself also produces greenhouse gases: during volcanic eruptions, a colossal release of carbon dioxide occurs, permafrost, or rather, the soil in permafrost regions releases methane, and so on.

The issue of global warming has been discussed since the last century. In theory it leads to the flooding of many coastal cities, to severe storms, heavy rainfall and long droughts, which will result in problems with agriculture. Also, mammals will migrate, and some species may become extinct in the process.

Is there a warming in Russia?

Scientists are still arguing whether warming has begun. Meanwhile, Russia is warming up. According to the Roshydrometcenter data from 2014, the average temperature in the European territory is rising faster than others. And this happens in all seasons except winter.

The temperature rises most rapidly (0.052 °C/year) in the northern and European territories of Russia. This is followed by Eastern Siberia (0.050 °C/year), Central Siberia (0.043), Amur and Primorye (0.039), Baikal and Transbaikalia (0.032), Western Siberia (0.029 °C/year). Of the federal districts, the highest rates of temperature increase are in the Central, the lowest - in the Siberian (respectively 0.059 and 0.030 °C / year). Image: WWF

"Russia remains the part of the world where climate warming over the course of the 21st century will substantially exceed global average warming," the ministry's report says.

Many scientists believe that it is more correct to track global warming by the World Ocean. Judging by our seas, it has begun: the average temperature of the Black Sea is growing by 0.08 ° C per year, Sea of Azov- by 0.07°С. In the White Sea, the temperature increases by 2.1°C per year.

Despite the fact that the temperature indicators of water and air are growing, experts are in no hurry to call this global warming.

“The fact of global warming has not yet been reliably established,” says Evgeny Zubko, associate professor at the School of Natural Sciences at Far Eastern Federal University. - The change in temperature is the result of the simultaneous action of several processes. Some lead to warming, others to cold.

One of these processes is the decline in solar activity, which leads to a significant cooling. Sunspots will be thousands of times less than usual, this happens once every 300-400 years. This phenomenon is called minimum solar activity. According to scientists from Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov, the decline will continue from 2030 to 2040.

Has the belt started to move?

Climatic zones - areas with stable weather, stretched horizontally. There are seven of them: equatorial, tropical, temperate, polar, subequatorial, subtropical and subpolar. Our country is large, it is surrounded by arctic, subarctic, temperate and subtropical regions.

Climatic zones of the Earth according to B.P. Alisov. Image: Kliimavootmed

“There is a possibility of movement of the belts, and, moreover, the shift is already underway,” says expert Yevgeny Zubko. What does it mean? Due to the offset, warm edges will become colder and vice versa.

Green grass will grow in Vorkuta (Arctic belt), winters will be warmer, summer periods - hotter. At the same time, it will get colder in the region of Sochi and Novorossiysk (subtropics). Winters won't be as mild as they are now, when snow falls and children are allowed to stay out of school. Summer won't be that long.

“The most striking example of a belt shift is the “offensive” of deserts,” says the climatologist. This is an increase in the area of deserts due to human activity - intensive plowing of land. Residents of such places have to move, cities disappear, as does the local fauna.

At the end of the last century, the Aral Sea, located in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, began to dry up. The fast-growing desert Aralkum is approaching it. The fact is that in Soviet times, a lot of water was drained from the two rivers that feed the sea for cotton plantations. This gradually dried up most of the sea, the fishermen lost their jobs - the fish disappeared.

Someone left their homes, some residents remained, and they have a hard time. The wind lifts salt and toxic substances from the bare bottom, which negatively affects people's health. Therefore, the Aral Sea is now trying to restore.

Every year 6 million hectares are subject to desertification. For comparison, this is like all the forests of the Republic of Bashkortostan. According to UN estimates, the damage from the onset of deserts is approximately 65 billion US dollars per year.

Why do the belts move?

“Climatic zones are shifting due to deforestation and changing riverbeds,” says climatologist Yevgeny Zubko.

The Water Code of the Russian Federation prohibits artificially changing the channels without appropriate permits. Sections of the river may become silty, and then it will die. But uncoordinated changes in the channels still occur, sometimes at the initiative of local residents, sometimes - to organize some kind of business near the reservoir.

What can we say about cutting. In Russia, 4.3 million hectares of forest are destroyed annually, the World Resources Institute has calculated. More than the entire land fund of the Kaluga region. Therefore, Russia is among the top 5 world leaders in deforestation.

For nature and man, this is a disaster: when forest cover is destroyed, animals and plants die, and rivers flowing nearby become shallow. Forests absorb harmful greenhouse gases, purifying the air. Without them, nearby cities will suffocate.

About such a problem as global warming, they began to talk in the middle of the last century. Until now, this issue has been the subject of numerous discussions, the topic of international symposia and documentary films. Even a person far from environmental disciplines knows what global warming is. It is expressed as an increase in the average climate temperature over the past 100 years.

But is global warming as dangerous as it is portrayed by scientists and the media? When will it start? What changes will happen to the planet due to climate warming? What awaits humanity in the worst case? Is the world community capable of solving the problem of global warming?

What is evidence of climate warming?

Temperature has been documented for 150 years. Over the past century, it has increased by an average of 0.5°C. A sharp warming of the climate occurred in the 1970s, when industrial activity intensified. Not only did the air temperature rise, but so did the water.

Global warming has led to an intense decrease in snow cover, melting and retreat of glaciers in Antarctica, Greenland and high mountain peaks. The consequence of this was the rise of the ocean level by about 10 cm. These and other phenomena prove that global warming is a real environmental problem.

What caused the warming?

Forest fires (during them a huge amount of carbon dioxide is released, moreover, a large number of trees are destroyed, converting it into oxygen in the process of photosynthesis).
Permafrost (methane is released from the soil located in the permafrost area).
World Ocean (water bodies are the main source of steam).
Volcanoes (when it erupts, an enormous amount of carbon dioxide is released).
Fauna (organisms that exhale carbon dioxide significantly increase its concentration in the atmosphere).

However, the greenhouse effect itself does not pose a threat - without it, the average temperature of the Earth would be -18°C. The point is that human activity over the past few decades has led to a significant increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, and, consequently, to an increase in climate temperature.

There are a number of other hypotheses that explain the occurrence of global warming on Earth. Satellite data suggest that the increase in climate temperature is caused by an increase in solar activity, which is not typical for past years. However, scientists do not have a complete picture of the change in the activity of the luminary for the publication of specific conclusions. The main facts indicate that the causes of global warming lie precisely in anthropogenic activities.

Factors that significantly increase the concentration of greenhouse gases:

Heavy industry (the main source of carbon dioxide emissions is the extraction and combustion of oil, gas and other minerals).
Agriculture (when the soil is intensively fertilized and treated with insecticides, nitrogen dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas, is released from it).
(the destruction of the "lungs of the planet" leads to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide).
Overpopulation (a huge amount of natural resources is required to meet the needs of the Earth's population).
Landfills (most of the waste is not recycled, but is burned or buried, which leads to a fundamental change in the biological system).

Despite the fact that humans have significantly contributed to climate warming, some scientists still prefer to divide the causes of global warming into natural and anthropogenic.

What awaits the planet in the future?

Global warming will lead not only to a further increase in the temperature of the earth's surface, but also to other changes. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions will increase. The level of the World Ocean will rise by half a meter in 100 years, in addition, the salinity of the water will change. The air will become more humid. Precipitation will begin to fall more intensively, their distribution will change, and the temperature maximum threshold will also increase. The melting of glaciers will accelerate.

Global warming will affect the course of weather events: winds and cyclones will intensify and become more frequent. Natural disasters, such as floods and hurricanes, will occur more regularly, and their scale will increase significantly.

Ecologists identify several regions of the earth, which will be particularly affected by the effects of global warming:

Sahara Desert;
Antarctic;
Deltas of major rivers in Asia;
Little islands.

Less rain will fall in the tropics and subtropics. As a result of global warming, arid regions of the Earth and deserts will increase in area, and permafrost will move further north.

Due to climate warming, the habitats of biological species will shift, which in turn will jeopardize the safety of living beings, there will be a serious danger of extinction of organisms.

One of the controversial consequences of global warming is. The change in the density of the ocean waters caused by climate warming will lead to the fact that the pattern of sea currents will become similar to that which was during the Ice Age.

An increase in the number of industrial enterprises, landfills and waste disposal, the development of oil and gas fields will lead to an irreversible change in the composition of the Earth's air envelope.

According to the optimistic scenario, according to which greenhouse gas emissions will remain at the same level, a critical situation will come on the planet in 300 years. Otherwise, irreversible consequences will be observed in 100 years.

Global warming will lead to changes not only in the biosphere, but also in economic activity and in society. The expansion of drought areas will lead to a reduction in sown areas, and agriculture will fall into decay. Developed countries will face the problem of hunger and lack of drinking water.

Is it possible for man to solve the problem of warming?

No matter how pessimistic the scenarios for the development of global warming are, humanity is still able to take measures so that the Earth does not become like Venus. The most promising today are two main areas of combating global warming:

enhanced reduction of emissions;
use of environmental technologies.

However, it is not completely clear which method implementation will make it more likely to avoid the catastrophic consequences of climate warming. Moreover, the effectiveness of both measures has been repeatedly called into question.

Radical reduction of emissions will become increasingly difficult as the economic activity of developing countries intensifies. To ensure the rapid growth of GDP, colossal energy resources are needed, the source of which are oil, gas and coal. The burning of natural resources is the main cause of the release of large amounts of carbon dioxide. Because of the scale and financial costs it is not possible to re-equip old industrial enterprises according to modern environmental standards. International agreements, in particular the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on the control of greenhouse gases, are failing.

The second direction in the fight against global warming is associated with the use of bioengineering technologies. Currently, installations are being created for pumping carbon dioxide into special mines. Scientists are working on extraordinary solutions, such as the use of aerosols to increase the reflectivity of the upper atmosphere. Whether this will be effective is still unknown.

Combining the two methods in the future will achieve better results. Improving catalytic converters and fuel combustion systems in cars will not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also reduce heavy metals. The use of alternative energy sources will help to reduce emissions by several times, but at the moment these technologies require large financial investments. The important fact remains that the production solar panels and windmills is also accompanied by a colossal blowout.

Smaller, but no less significant measures to address global warming include:

increase in green spaces;
the use of energy-saving devices and devices;
recycling;
drawing public attention to the problem.

If international control and large-scale environmental projects seem far from everyday life, then the above methods apply to all the inhabitants of the planet. Cycling and a vegetarian diet will not harm you (rather it will be useful!), but the involvement and caring of those who call the Earth their home will help prevent the effects of global warming. Just as once people “by joint efforts” violated the natural balance, so now, with the interest of everyone, it will be possible to avoid catastrophic changes.

Global warming caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is a truly large-scale problem of our time. A person should not remain indifferent to it and miss ways to prevent climate change!